Bounced Out?

New polls suggesting that the post-convention bounce and "Palin Effect" enjoyed by the Republicans over the past 2 weeks is fading.

The contest appeared to be roughly where it was before the two conventions and before the vice-presidential selections: Mr. Obama had the support of 48 percent of registered voters, compared with 43 percent for Mr. McCain, a difference within the poll’s margin of sampling error, and statistically unchanged from the tally in the last New York Times/CBS News Poll in mid-August.

Here's a reminder of how close the race actually is right now:

If the polls are right, and if election were held today, Obama would win 22 states (California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin) and the District of Columbia to secure 273 electoral votes.

McCain would take the rest (including the battleground states of Florida, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia) for 265 electoral votes.

My sense is that Ohio is very much in play, however, so I think that giving it to McCain at this point is silly. The same may be true for Nevada, where a strong Democratic registration advantage ought not be discounted.